Ceasefire, violence and the middle-east situation
The highly appreciated Times magazine has published and article regarding possible ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians – which in unavoidable, due to Time’s magazine 3 professionals (one represents the Israeli side, one represents the Palestinian and one makes the shots as it represents the USA) .
In the end, Israel and Hamas both know that there will be a cease-fire in Gaza. Its timing and terms will be “negotiated” in bombs and bloodshed in the days ahead; it will be mediated by a third party or a combination of third parties; and it will be shaped by a complex regional power game involving an array of competing Israeli politicians, the rival Palestinian leaderships of Hamas and President Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt, Syria and even more distant players such as Turkey, Iran and, of course, the United States. The victims of this “negotiation”, needless to say, will be scores of ordinary Palestinians, and a handful of Israelis. And at its end, the fundamentals of the Gaza standoff will remain largely unchanged.
According to past similar situations this might seem like a sound idea. Israel and the Palestinians has always ceased firing, eventually. The situation has calmed down, back to “kitty fighting”, toying around, one might say. In middle-east terms suicide bombs, Racket launches into civilized territory and other acts of violence are one nothing out of the usual. Israeli citizens know this situation could eventually end in a cease-fire but they hope it won’t. This act has been declared as a mean to achieve specific goals, and maybe a longtime dream that seems like a far cry from current situation – a change in standards.
USA has invaded Iraq to replace their government with a more US-friendly government. Can Israel do the same? can Israel interfere with inner politics of an area which is not longer theirs? They most definitely can, but results could be as temporary as a cease-fire and far more dangerous.
The great American empire is still the hand that rolls the dice, while Israel has been receiving negative feedbacks for almost everything they do. An invasion will include many casualties for both sides , and harsh financial penalties (UN and NATO).
So how can Israel change standards ? Israel has given up a large property near Gaza in AUG 2005, as a gesture. Israel has released over 200 Palestinians prisoners, as a gesture. The Oslo (1994) agreement has failed, and all pink-glassed dreams about long lasting peace has now changed with a call to a cease-fire. So, if fire ceases now, will it continue when Palestinians get armored enough ? Can you expect a legitimate, UN approved country, to be short-sighted and not reach for the long term solution?
Israel has one choice that will provide basic protection for its citizens, and will not include altering internal politics of another country (or reign) and is to disarm Palestine .
There won’t be volunteering from the Palestinian side, and will demand a long and serious act by the Israeli side, which is finally realizing they should have never put their weapons on the hands of the Gaza police which is not controlled by Hamas.
Israel will give Palestine full autonomy but will prevent them from armoring themselves with any means, including Israeli army guarding the Egyptian side of Gaza where weapon flows like water in the underground tunnels. This is not an optimal solution , but is the only one that could get the vicious cycle of death to cease.
Disarmor Palestine
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